Gov. Pritzker Announces Extended Stay-At-Home Order to May 30, Explains Decision With Adjusted Models
New models warn of the severity of a second wave without stay-at-home orders. Photo via Gov. Pritzker press release
On Thursday, Ill. Governor J.B. Pritzker officially announced in a press briefing that he would be extending Illinois’s stay-at-home order to May 30. The governor also required face coverings for anyone over the age of two when going into public spaces where social distancing was not possible.
However, Pritzker outlined a plan to begin easing restrictions starting May 1. These adjustments included reopening of garden centers and state parks and allowing for medical centers to resume elective surgeries. He also allowed certain non-essential retail stores to take online and phone orders for pickup and delivery.
While explaining the extension of Illinois’s stay-at-home order — amidst the decisions of other governors to start reopening their own states — Pritzker pointed to new models that place an expected peak of COVID-19 deaths in Illinois in late April to early May.
He said that while the state’s peak had previously been predicted for mid-April, these models were revised to take into account current data, including number of cases, hospital capacity, and the enactment of social distancing.
The governor also cautioned that the unpredictability of the virus made it difficult to produce an entirely reliable model.
“I guarantee the model we are sharing will change in the coming days,” Pritzker said. He added that the data is considered with “worst case scenario” circumstances, in terms of the number of infections and hospital capacity, to allow for ample planning.
The adjusted model comes as a result of the state bringing together researchers from institutions including University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Northwestern, and University of Chicago, as well as outside consultants.
Nigel Goldenfeld, a researcher from University of Illinois, described the difficulties of creating a model for the trajectory of the virus citing a number of unknown factors. These included not knowing how the virus would behave after summer and the number of people who can be asymptomatic.
Sergei Maslov, another researcher from University of Illinois, said that after running simulations that traced the virus’ trajectory without a stay-at-home order, the state’s death rate would be 20 times as high. He also warned that easing social distancing measures too quickly would result in a potentially devastating second wave of cases.
“The first wave was started by a few individuals,” Maslov said. “The second wave would be started by thousands of infected people.”
Over the past 24 hours, there have been an additional 1,826 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 123 related deaths, bringing statewide totals to 36,934 positive cases and 1,688 deaths.